A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
